I predict 2006’s electoral results as the yardstick from which 2025’s can be projected

With a popular incumbent and a fragmented opposition, the parallels to 2006 are clear—though the political context has evolved.

This election will fundamentally be a contest between the PPP versus anti-PPP forces. I foresee a 2006-style victory for the PPP - and the subsequent analysis outlines my reasoning in full.

For reference, those results were as follows:

PPP/C - 36

PNC/R- 1G - 22

AFC - 5

Several factors are slightly different - with the overall equation largely remaining the same.

2006 saw then-President Jagdeo contesting reelection at the peak of his heyday. This was in the face of an inherited, tumultuous Public Service Strike, the 2005 Flood, the 2002 Jailbreak and the resulting security system collapse. One writer contemporaneously described Jagdeo’s Presidency as being “baptized by fire”. President Ali has had to navigate several episodes of strike action and public unrest over the course of his term, but significantly less than the prevailing circumstances under which Jagdeo ran for reelection. Make no mistake - Ali enjoys greater cross sectional support now than Jagdeo did back then.

Jagdeo’s main Opposition was ex- Burnham strongman Robert Corbin, widely seen as unelectable. Corbin carried significant, perhaps even worse baggage, when compared to Norton - unable to wrestle himself from under the cloud of the Kabaka years despite their most recent rebranding to “PNC/R - One Guyana”. As Norton currently faces, Corbin had to contend with resistance from within - with the AFC’s emergence being the most significant effort on that front. Corbin and Norton share the commonality of leading a battered - albeit viable - PNC political machinery against a young and popular incumbent.

Further, when the AFC emerged, bright and blue-eyed, onto the scene in the 2006 cycle - they attracted a hodgepodge of PPP and PNC rejects, culminating in a somewhat viable machinery. Those seeking to undermine Corbin from within Congress Place covertly supported ex-PNC turned AFC leader Raphael Trotman. Their singular ambition back then, as is now: Denying the PPP a Parliamentary majority.

If the remaining small parties dive headfirst and formally align with Mohamed - regardless of implication by association - they are doing so at their own expense. They will cease to exist but in name only - serving to add mere logistical support for the Mohamed campaign. News reports of Charles Sugrim—representing Team Mohamed—trying to lure Region 8 villagers onto their Parliamentary list just confirms the hesitancy by established political forces to come on board. This is why Nomination Day will determine whether this “sheen” actually endures.

Please note that I’ve contained my analysis to the three significant contenders - Nigel Hughes and the AFC will not participate in any race in which Norton would have a better showing. The AFC will not scrape a single seat if they even dare to run - would the collective hubris even allow it?

This is my prediction: 2006 is the benchmark of what 2025 will at the very least look like.

Expect thirty six seats or more in a landslide win for Ali, no more than 5 seats for a Team Mohamed slate, leaving a strained PNC to mop up the rest of the spoils - before their inevitable rebrand. And this is being conservative.

In Guyana, politics is never straightlined - it is elliptical.